System Reliability
Level 3: Master of Mundane
Future Guardian,
Have you ever noticed that the “high probability” plans and program you start and purchase don’t deliver on the results expected?
For instance, you may have come across promises like, "A 99% success rate script to attract your ideal clients," and found it falling short of expectations?
Or why the next tech or software doesn’t solve the problem it was designed to solve?
In other words…
Reality does not meet expectations.
Or perhaps you’ve noticed technology improves in leaps and bounds, but the human condition doesn’t.
As the world becomes more complex, one foundational concept reigns supreme—System Reliability.
System Reliability:
The probability that a system delivers the outcome expected.
This article delves deep into the meaning of system reliability, unravels the influence of the least reliable component, and offers insights on elevating the overall reliability of a system.
Deciphering System Reliability
The reliability of a system is a product of the reliability of the components that make up the system.
- Garret Hardin, Filters Against Folly.
Let's use some simple math break this down.
First, we need to understand that nothing is perfect, which means no component of any system has a reliability of 100%. Therefore, the reliability of each component is reflected as a fraction or percentage. This is important, because when you multiply fractions, the numbers can only get smaller (less reliable).
Imagine you have a system with two components. Each component does exactly what it’s design to do, when it’s supposed to 90% percent of the time. You might think the system is 90% reliable, but it’s not.
It's actually lower!
90% * 90% = 81%.
If you pay your electric bill 90% of the time and your light bulb works 90% of the time, the light won't turn on 90% of the time you flip the switch. It will do so only 81% of the time.
Make sense?
It gets slightly more complicated.
Imagine your boss wants the lights on at exactly 5 AM every day.
You show up to work in time to flip the switch 90% of the time, the bill has been paid 90% of the time and the lightbulb works 90% of the time…
90% * 90% * 90% = 72.9%.
the light would only be turned on at 5am 72.9% of the time. Even if you add a component that is as reliable as the others (90% in this case), the total system reliability goes down.
More components always drives down reliability.
Even if you add something more reliable than the other components, let’s say 99% reliable, it doesn’t improve the reliability of the system - it still decreases it.
90% * 90% * 90% * 99% = 72.1%.
Even though the new technology was more reliable than all the other components it still drove the overall system reliability down.
You can replace components and potentially improve reliability, but you can't add more components to improve reliability.
This is a simple mathematical argument to simplify stuff.
And Now… The Kicker…
In every single system the least reliable component is human behavior.
If you have a decent technology is reliable 90% of the time but a human who only follows through 60% of the time, the total reliability is only 54%.
90% * 60% = 54%.
Even if you make the technology much better, say 99%, the overall result is still only a bit better because of the not-so-reliable human part.
99% * 60% = 59.4%.
This is why tech improves faster than the human condition. See, the adoptive dilemma for more.1
Here's the reality: if you improve the human part by just 9%, instead of focusing on improving the technology it makes a big difference in reliability.
90% * 69% = 62.1%
Few takeaways here:
Removing, replacing or improving the least reliable component of a system will have the biggest positive impact on the whole system.
Even if all of the components in the system are near perfect, the system reliability will still be lower than the least reliable component.
The lest reliable components in every system are the humans (yes, that means you).
Don’t believe me?
Keep reading.
Human Reliability - (Re)Visited
Five out of seven is 71%.
If your computer only started 71% of the time…
If your car only started 71% of the time…
If your text messages only went to the right contact 71% of the time…
Would that be acceptable?
No. We would not accept a 71% reliable from ANY technology in our lives.
…but we also think following our diet, work or life plan five days a week out of seven is doing pretty good.
Even a human “doing pretty good” would be absolutely unacceptable from any technology, plan or program in our life.
We have a high expectation of technology to be reliable. They are.
We have expectations for the future. They are often not met.
We make the mistake of not realizing our own behavior is part of the system - and the biggest limit to what we want.
Lessons:
Less components will be more reliable
If you want to add a more reliable component, replace a less reliable one
The least reliable component is always the human in the middle of the system
Increasing your own reliability is covered in Bumpers2
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