The Greatest Upside Play in Life
Level 3: Master of the Mundane
Future Guardian,
If you care about making decisions so that you have the greatest possible upside with the least amount of risk,
Oh boy do I have one for you today.
And it's one you can apply to your life immediately.
If you're reading this wondering what the heck I'm talking about, or wondering if you accidentally stumbled into a den of gambling (I'm talking about risk and upside after all), let me show you how this applies to your life whether you like it or not.
THEN I'll show you how you can use risk and upside to create the highest level of sustained happiness you can achieve in life.
Sound good?
Sound ... too good to be true?
Well, I'm not going to trick you. There's ... sort of a catch. But I think it's one you'll be able to accept.
Let me explain,
Starting with Risk.
Risk.
Oh my. Not only can entire books be written on this subject, but, many entire books HAVE been written on and around this subject.
Risk and life.
Let's start with the obvious - loss.
I think most people associate the concept of risk with the concept of loss. You risk losing something.
Simple example: Jumping out of an airplane. You risk death (if your parachute fails). Statistically not a huge risk, but still a risk. We know this because if you don't jump out of an airplane, you don't carry the small chance that you'll fall to your death on a failed parachute.
I know this is simple,
But I'm laying it out for a reason.
So,
Stick with it 😉
Death is our biggest fear, and the one certainty you have in life. So it ends up defining much of our risk perception. Our human mindset, driven by programmed biology, is quite adept at avoiding risk of your demise (though that can be hijacked by significantly outsized rewards ... more on that in a moment) to the point where it throws resistance at any change.
But risk, technically speaking, is more than just a chance of losing something.
I think more accurately, and more usefully, risk is the chance of the opposite occurring.
If you stand up, you risk falling down.
If you run you risk tripping.
If you drive you risk crashing.
If you invest money, you risk not gaining that investment back.
But,
It's not exactly the opposite occurring either ... because its funny how falling down doesn't risk standing up
The situation created is almost more akin to tension.
The more tension you apply the greater chance that the thing tension is applying to will snap back out of tension.
The higher the peak, the bigger the valley, so when you fall, the higher the peak the greater the chance that you fall further. Because falling is not just falling, it depends on how far you fall. Falling a foot is less of a risk than falling a mile.
We might argue that risk is a byproduct of creating distance, motion, and/or tension between where you are now and where you want to be going.
The thing is, even if you do nothing you still have risk.
You actually greatly increase the risk that you don't achieve what you want if you do absolutely nothing.
If you hope to live a good full rich life, and you don't do anything, then you risk not living.
That isn't to say you risk death, you simply have the risk of not getting what you want if you sit on your butt and don't make any moves.
Which is an easy spot to get into if you're honed in on the fear of losing through action.
But risk is the chance that our movement results in something counter to the outcome or desire we need.
Movement really is at the heart of risk, and it’s important to realize we're all moving.
Time is movement.
Life is movement.
This whole thing we exist in - time included - moves around us whether we like it or not.
So if you do nothing, you risk not achieving what you want. If you do something, you risk the outcome of failure, but you actually decrease the risk that you don't get what you want at the same time (assuming you're headed in the right direction).
Intentional movement in the right direction decreases your risk of not achieving your goal, while at the same time creating new risk.
Risk of resource loss without the sought out gain. Because our movement requires resources (remember Time is a resource).
If we mitigate the risk to our resources from movement, AND we mitigate the risk of not getting what we want, then both risk dynamics are mitigated and we're only left with the upside.
(That's the theory anyway)
The point is,
No matter what you do, there is risk.
Because we are moving. If you head in a particular direction there's a risk that you head in the wrong direction or even possibly head backwards. If you don’t intentionally move in a direction, time moves you anyway.
Rather than trying to avoid "risk," because it is unavoidable, we take steps to mitigate "risk." Mitigate the chance of the opposite happening from our actions.
For example, let's say you dream of starting your own business. For simplicity sake we'll say that this business is freelance consulting, you're working 1 to 1 and getting clients either through cold outreach or referral.
The inherent risk in that structure can be that if a client decides to drop you, you won't be able to make money until you replace them. Compared to being an employee at a company where the paycheck is (theoretically) more reliable (there's lower risk of losing the money you need to cover your bases).
You need X amount each month to put a roof over your head, feed yourself and your family, pay your bills, etc.
By going out on your own, you increase the risk that you'll not be able to cover those basic essentials, simply because it's more likely that you'll lose a client as a freelancer, than you'd lose your job as an employee.
Of course the upside (which I'll get more into momentarily), is far greater as freelancer. You're capable of making FAR more than your employment. Your growth is only limited by your own capability, rather than capped by a position at a company.
So you accept a lot more risk in order for a lot more reward.
(I know, basic)
How you mitigate that risk can come in many forms. Here's an approach:
On the one hand you might just jump right into the freelance work and depend entirely on your ability to get clients, do the work well, and either keep those clients or replace them.
On the other hand ...
You might save up 6-12 months of personal income to back yourself in your work. That means if you lose a client, you still have your basic needs covered.
Risk is mitigated.
Here's another way to mitigate risk:
Reduce the amount you need to make each month by cutting spending, thereby making it easier to meet your needs.
Here's another way to mitigate risk:
Establish different avenues of revenue, each of which are capable of supporting your baseline, so that if one falls, you’ve got a backup covering things.
There's still risk in all of those scenarios.
Risk that even though you have a runway, you won't be able to solve your problems in time. Risk that even if you cut spending to reduce your budget, you still won't be able to make the lowered requirement. Risk that you miss out on a ‘better’ opportunity because your plate is full.
Still risk. Just, mitigated.
The possible negative outcome has less negative impact on you if it occurs.
Upside
Of course, the companion to this conversation of risk is Upside.
Upside is typically the reason we take on more risk.
We want much greater things.
We want to make more money in less time, or even the same money in less time.
Upside is obvious,
It's all the big things we want. It's the reason people gamble. It's the reason crypto gets so much attention (when it's going well), its the reason people quit their jobs and start their own businesses, because of the seemingly huge upside.
Upside isn't just getting a lot, it's getting a lot for a little.
(It's always a ratio, risk v reward)
It's buying Bitcoin when it was $1 and having your investment go up 60k times as much. It's starting a business with your $10k in savings and having it grow to multiple millions a year.
But most of the time,
People think about Upside irrespective of Risk. Or at the very least they are terrible at assessing their risk, or ignore the risk out of greed.
They'll put all their savings into crypto because the upside potential could mean they'd never have to work again a day in their life.
They put their last dollar into starting a business because now they are unshackled from their 9-5 prison and not only can live the life of their dreams, but if they work hard enough will be able to make more money in a year than they could in 10 years at their job.
We use the analogy of Russian Roulette because it highlights risk so well.
Say you are playing Russian Roulette. 5 times out of 6 you win $10 million.
Is it a good bet?
A lot of people would take that, because it represents such a huge upside.
The problem is that the downside risk is death. 1 in 6 times is certain death. Complete and utter ruin. Total destruction. Can't play the game anymore.
Putting all your savings into crypto is similar. Maybe there is huge upside potential (but you can't really know for sure), but if it doesn't work, if your investment goes down, you lose everything.
You're not dead. But you have drained all of your financial resources which sets you back a great deal.
Same with putting your last dollar into starting a business. It looks like a lot of upside, but - and this is especially true if you've never walked the path before - you have no idea of even knowing if that's going to work well for the life you think you desire (you get blinded by the upside potential among other things).
Again,
You can't do anything without risk.
So,
If you are making a move for some upside benefit, an unavoidable part of that movement is risk.
No upside exists without downside risk.
The real trick is, to make your downside risk something that has little to no impact on you if it comes to pass, while still taking advantage of all the upside potential.
An example:
Let's say you think some investment might go 100x.
Well, you could put all of your savings into that, risking the loss of all those savings. Let's say it's $100k - if your prediction comes to pass, that's $10 million! Never have to work again! woo!
If you lose ... well you're out $100k and that's all your savings. How are you going to even get back to parity?
Now let's say, instead of $100k, you just put in $10k.
Would it suck to lose $10k? Yea. But in this case lets say over the long term it doesn't really have an impact on you. You'll be fine, you can weather that loss and make it up. It won't have an impact on your day to day if you lose it.
But if it works out ... +$1 million is 10x your savings. That's just as life changing as any other bigger number.
That's a much greater Upside to Risk ratio. You risk something, but if you lose it, the impact on you is negligible, while the gain is massively impactful.
"But, but ... $10 million is a hell of a lot more than $1 million! I could never work again on $10 million, but with only $1 million, I'll still have to do things."
I mean ...
On the one hand, that's life. Doing things.
On the other hand ... if you can't see how 10x ing your savings without risking your ass isn't a better choice, maybe slow down and keep thinking through this process and your life.
Do you want to keep chasing Russian Roulette? The longer you play that game the greater the likelihood you die.
Or do you want to learn how to live life well no matter what?
The Ratio
Regardless of you how look at it, Upside and Risk are all about a ratio.
And if we can help it, we want that ratio to be far more in favor of the upside than the risk.
Like examples above, if the negative outcome you "risk" fully comes to pass but it has little to no impact on you then the upside potential is greatly outsized in comparison.
Less vs More
The deeper conversation here really is about less vs more.
That is, people usually chase more and the companion to that is vastly increased risk.
But if instead of trying to get more (which vastly increases your risk), you focus on having less, that not only doesn't increase your risk, if you do it right, it actually reduces your risk while maintaining upside.
In other words ... the power move is Via Negativa.1
Cut. Remove.
Cutting is an act of removing risk in every way you look at. Because risk increases as resource expenditure increases, any place you cut pressure on your resources also reduces your risk.
And it doesn't have to just be your tangible resources.
The more you cut, from your expectations, from your visions of the future, the more you reduce your risk of not meeting them.
The more you end up in the now.
The more you cut from what you think you need, the easier it is to serve your actual needs.
The more you remove yourself from gazing at the potential of what could be, the more you'll find yourself in a place where you can actually be completely happy now, with no desire for more.
"But if you lose your desire, how will you get more?" Says the mindset coach who needs you to chase the carrot so they can keep getting paid.
What is Desire for Achievement anyway?
Especially if chasing more just rapidly increases our risk compared to the upside?
Perhaps the easiest uninformed unstructured path is to hold onto drive. To have a dream and just push yourself toward that. Without understanding how to engineer the outcome, what else could you possibly do?
(In TGA we know that putting our foot on the gas and the break at the same time is a bad idea2)
But so often people see a goal as the fuel for their motivation.
"One day I'll have what I want."
"One day I'll achieve my dream."
"One day I'll have the tallest tree."
All the while failing to have that thing. Failing to be living the life they desire. Failing to be happy because they've wound up their vision of life and happiness into something which they don't have.
Why do so many people chase their dreams all the way to death only to look back and realize they missed living life?
The answer isn't to let go of dreams.
The answer is to let go how you think the dream is going to unfold.
The goal is important because it gives us direction and steps to take.
But the goal then becomes unimportant once you start moving because what matters is the movement and the steps.
Desire for Achievement is the same. We wrap our Desire for Achievement around an end goal and then obsess over getting that more than the steps to getting there. We push ourselves. We hurt ourselves. We go as fast as possible and at some point, run into a wall only to realize we went all that distance all that quickly in the wrong direction.
All of these should sound familiar if you've been around TGA.
The Ultimate Life Risk Frame
Here's the problematic frame I keep running across and how we can flip it on it's head for maximum happiness.
This one bug's the crap out of me.
Most likely because I used to get sucked in by this stuff, but now I see what's actually going on.
It's usually presented in some graph like this:
And they say "you're about to give up here" on the tiny part of the graph, "and you'll never see this" on the huge part of the graph.
The insinuation:
Everything you want is about to happen if you just keep going.
All the things you dream of, they are right around the corner. It's all about to hockey stick. You're sitting on a massive oil field about to break through, you just have to keep digging.
If you give up now, you give up all the things you dream of having.
And here's where it all comes together.
Because "the dream" that they want you to chase is the upside.
The "risk" they want you to imagine is not getting the things that you desire. If you give up you risk losing all the upside.
But that's not how this works.
Because we know there are multiple risk dynamics at play. The risk of not getting what you want is somewhat mitigated assuming you are heading in the right direction.
But alongside all that you have risk to your resources currently at your disposal.
So.
How do we take this life situation, and minimize all of the risk so much that we're left with nothing but upside?
What is the situation where you have zero risk of not getting what you want in life, while enjoying all the upside of your pursuits?
Here's how you use risk and upside to create the highest level of sustained happiness you can achieve in life:
Instead of desiring all of that upside you don’t have …
Allow yourself to desire all the things you have NOW and be happy in the present.
Then,
YOU RISK NOTHING - because you have it all, already
All that upside which could happen …
It's. All. Upside.
All that there ---
That's total GRAVY my friends.
It's all frosting on the cake.
You just have to let go and be happy right now.
Like this:
Yea,
I know,
There's a "catch."
Because there's actually no trick to this other than letting yourself be happy and letting go of your desire for more.
How ... Buddhist ... of me I suppose.
But for real, people, there's a reason this wisdom has existed for thousands of years.
It's because all you ever actually have is you, here, and now.
You could take the perspective that you might wake up dead tomorrow and this is all you'll ever have,
But forget about death and birth for a moment.
All you ever are is you right now.
Because this is life and existence. It's the present moment.
And
I just showed you mathematically how to appreciate the present - if you like having your risk mitigated to the upside, as we like to say.
If you have everything you desire already, then you have 0% chance of not getting it.
THEN, you can make your decisions weighted to reduce or eliminate the risk of losing what you have 😁
(Because remember, we're always moving and no matter what, that means risk)
But you can also forget the math,
Forget the logic,
And just go stand outside in the grass with yourself, let everything else go, let your thoughts of what could be go, let your thoughts of what were, go, and feel what it's really like to be now.
Then come back inside,
Take a good hard look at what you have, what you hope to have, and if you really want to reduce your risk and create absurd upside ...
Find your happiness with what you have right now.
Let everything after that be gravy.
It's a good life, to live that way, if you can.
Be Useful. Be Present. Love the Journey.
, CMO The Guardian Academy
Engage in discussion with the author and TGA+ Community in the comments below - give us your 6WU and/or thoughts after reading. Together we make a rising tide that lifts all ships.
Ready to apply your ideas to reality? You may find our Engage the Field Handbook a useful and effective resource.3
Get your hands on awesome unique swag and opportunities by sharing this article. We treat our ambassadors like royalty :)
The process is the shortcut *and* the reward. Simply begin and begin again.