Uncertainty is a Dangerous State of Mind for the Uninitiated
Level 4: Serious Player
Dear Future Guardian,
What the heck am even I doing?
Ever have that sense?
Perhaps you're in the midst of a big project, a long trek on the road to some goal in the future, a different life situation than where you are now and thus far you've taken pretty reliable steps along the way but suddenly it hits you ...
What if ...?
What if this is all a farce? A sham? What if this isn't going to work the way I want it to? What if I really have no idea what I'm doing? What if I'm on the wrong track? What if I don't get what I need to get out of all this? What if I'm left in a worse position?
Paralysis.
Retreat.
Inaction.
Indecision.
They all come next.
Steeped deep in the sea of uncertainty you imagine all the best and the worst things that can happen and no matter what you do the worst things win out and you start to detach from the reality that's right in front of you ...
And search for something that feels better.
A sense of certainty.
A knowing that what you're doing is right.
That you're going to be ok.
And that might all sound good ...
But what if I told you the real answer, the real truth that you seek, is not something you can fully understand or see right now, and that the only answer is to go through that thick black mud of uncertainty.
That what you really want actually lies on this path.
So,
If that's where we want to go, why do we seek certainty so much?
There's an interesting dynamic of action at play here.
Especially I think when we are trying to achieve something. We seek action which is going to get us what we want. We might have a good idea of where we think we want to be, and we may have backwards engineered a really good estimation of what that path can look like ...
And then we want to take action on that path to feel like we are going to get there. Certainty makes that all the easier. Certainty lends itself well to action, because when we are certain resistance is taken away and all that stands in between us and the thing we think we want is to move forward.
Uncertainty is anything but a force that makes action easier. It's like fog of war in a video game. You can see the landscape in your closest vicinity as well as where you've travelled. You might even be able to see the spot that you think you want to get to ...
But everything between you and it is covered in fog.
Which way do you go? Even if you are pretty sure the direction you want to head, what if the next place on the map you reveal is a trap?
When faced with uncertainty our natural inclination is to snap back towards some sense of certainty, to either react through inaction, or react through blind action toward the goal we think we want.
We want to know we are going to be ok.
As a creative, I wrestle with this all the time.
It often shows up best described as "resistance1." Resistance feeds on uncertainty, because it will take that meager thread and weave an entire tapestry in my path keeping me from moving forward.
It will feed my imagination of all the possible and every negative outcome will weigh on me 10 times worse - never mind that none of it is real.
This article itself is a fine example. I do not know how this is going to turn out. I can't clearly see all the connections, how I'm going to lead into it, how I'm going to make this idea good and useful the way I see it in my mind ... the only thing left to me is to just get started (or not).
That sense in the face of the unknown is rarely overt. The "I'm not going to get started" manifests as an overwhelm which encourages me heavily to distract myself with youtube, or walk around the house, or work on something different so I can feel productive, etc.
When in reality all I need to do is allow myself to be uncertain about what this is going to be while putting words on the page.
I have titled this "Uncertainty is a Dangerous State of Mind for The Uninitiated", but even the initiated are susceptible to the sometimes overwhelming blackness of the unknown that we balk. Even knowing exactly what is going on. In that case, we remind ourselves, we are never perfect, but always working slowly on growing better.
We can learn to recognize this sooner and move forward into the ultimate power of uncertainty.
And here's why this is so important:
Now the kicker.
The best stuff happens for you when you take action in uncertainty.
This is easy for me to say as your author on TGA here, because nearly every piece I've ever written in the past year has started by stepping into the uncertainty of what that piece would even ultimately say, and certainly whether that piece would even be received as good/useful/interesting ...etc.
Uncertainty is inevitable when you move forward into something new.
When you're doing things you haven't done before. Or even when you are taking actions you've taken before, but in a new direction, or further along a path than you have traveled.
I've certainly written plenty. But I've never written this.
Apply that to anything.
"I've certainly had a job, but I've never had that one."
"I've certainly been in long term relationships, but I've never been married."
"I've certainly had 1 kid, but I've never had another."
(The above being random examples)
You get it right? Uncertainty is where the good stuff can emerge, while certainty has no emergence. It's just an already walked path, or a fabricated path you think is already defined and real. If the actual outcome you seek IS the certain thing, then by all means, but I'd suggest that …
Most people don't actually ultimately “want” what they think they want.
Part of that is because it's really really hard to know what you want.
It's easy to know what you DON'T want.
What you don't want is absolute.
When I go to a fancy restaurant I know I do not want steak tartare, so I'm gonna order something cooked ... but what will that be? Filet Mignon? Some pepper crusted New York? Heck maybe I'll be looking at the menu and change my mind to fish ...
But I know damn well sure I'm NOT getting that steak tartare.
Easy to see in the minutiae if you think about it.
Let's do another.
I'm going on a vacation. Lots of options of activities. I can tell you with supreme certainty that I will NEVER parachute out of an airplane.
But what other activity will I chose? Wine tasting? Hot air balloon ride? Lounging by the pool? Fancy dinner? I dunno, I'll probably figure it out as I go - but for damn sure I won't be jumping out of a plane.
(This fictitious vacation is apparently in an area like Napa Valley for whatever reason)
It's easy to know what you don't want,
And far more challenging to know what you DO want.
Uncertainty is about dealing with what you don't know - and embracing that uncertainty is important because of one key dynamic:
And that's the emergent nature of paths of choice:
You may have seen me show this sort of thing before - in fact I'm gonna rip this expertly made graphic from “5 Steps to Success2”:
Every time you make a choice and take an action, it opens up new possible paths of choice.
It's as simple as that.
The more steps you take the more unique paths open up.
Grasping certainty is like trying to know what all those paths are going to be and forcing your way to the end point.
Embracing Uncertainty is recognizing that you don't know what those paths are going to be, and each step you take can give you new information that might change your steps or your direction.
Being in Uncertainty without understanding this ...
HAS to be a highly anxiety provoking situation. To believe that there is one true specific path and yet to be constantly presented with innumerable choices which require you to gain clarity to move forward ... how could you not wreck yourself without the presence of mind to know this is actually the way it should be?
You either freeze in fear, not taking any further paths forward, or you attempt to force the path you believe is certain, without regard to clearer knowledge/understanding/truth which might be presenting itself at each junction point.
Fear or destruction. Unless you recognize and embrace the uncertainty.
And then there's living a meaningful life of Full Potential ...
If you're at all interested in living a life of Full Potential then this is yet another reason to figure out how to get familiar and comfortable with uncertainty.
For your quick reference:
Full Potential is an emergent combination of Unknown Potential and Known Potential. You can read above for the in depth discussion.
Known Potential is something you are capable of pulling out in yourself. It's recognizing what you're good and and enjoy doing and doing that over and over and over and over.
But that only goes so far.
Because you need your Unknown Potential, which happens when you're tapping into your Known Potential and you have exposure, proximity, and access to the people who can bring the Unknown Potential out of you.
It's not something you can do alone.
And then Full Potential emerges from tapping into your Known Potential in a place where your Unknown Potential is also being brought out. Those second two, the unknown and the full potential, are things you can't know until you do the right things in the right places with the right people.
Pure uncertainty.
You quite plainly cannot live a life of Full Potential without stepping into the unknown.
Into the uncertain.
And when you do step into the uncertain if you aren't familiar with the dynamics, if you start fighting yourself and reality in order to wrest certainty into place ... you will drown out the potential for the unknown and block yourself from Full Potential emergence altogether.
All the above is the reason we talk about taking Microsteps3, finding your Next Best Step4, Raising the Floor5, and especially Engaging the Field6.
Because they are all ways that you can step into uncertainty willingly, with full knowledge and understanding that your path is indeed uncertain, and that when you are feeling that uncertainty it is actually exactly what you are supposed to be feeling.
Accepting that and stepping forward into uncertainty with present intent forces you into receptivity for the powerful potential you'd otherwise overlook being blinded by a need for certainty.
SO -- Why is Uncertainty Dangerous for The Uninitiated?
If you aren't aware of the nature of uncertainty and how it shows up for you … you run a high risk of taking the wrong path. Your natural reaction to the uncertain is going to be to grasp onto certainty. To change course because it feels wrong, bad, scary, unknown.
But it's that action of turning to certainty which actually increases your risk of ruin more than anything. You don't need certainty of anything beyond the next step that you take.
Aside from the potential of taking the wrong path, is actually not taking a path at all. The most certain thing for you is the reality you know.
"People prefer the certainty of misery to the misery of uncertainty"
- Virginia Satir
(We should probably get shirts made)
And when presented with uncertainty the easiest thing to do is stay put. In the situation which you know. In the situation and outcome which is certain. Even if you can objectively determine that it's not the one you want.
That all means you'll refrain from Engaging the Field.
Engaging the Field of course is taking action, into the unknown, with some kind of idea, some kind of data, some kind of hypothesis to find out what happens when you do X.
That's scary. Even when you know what's going on with the dynamic of uncertainty as you step forward in Engaging the Field, all the potential outcomes become present in your mind before doing the action - which (ironically?) makes it all the more important to just DO the action so that you can find out what is real and what is something you are just imagining.
But broadly, people's reaction to uncertainty is to turn away from it because they think it's bad.
That's yet another layer of this challenge for the uninitiated. By default we think uncertainty is BAD because uncertainty means risk and unknown. And if you are moving forward into the unknown without certainty how can you possibly get where you want to go?
Succumbing to the nature of Uncertainty and turning away from it means you cannot fully discover what you really want in life, let alone actually attain whatever that is.
What can we do about it?
I'd like to leave you with some practical things you can apply in life. I've already mentioned the principled tools of Microsteps / Next Best Step, Raising the Floor, and Engaging the Field.
Here are a couple more tools and perspectives which I've found useful to help step into uncertainty.
Lower Risk
If we step back and look at what causes people so much trouble with uncertainty you might argue that it's a level of perceived risk.
When we are in an uncertain state about our future, about the choices that we're trying to make, it can be very easy to get in our head imaginging all the possible different outcomes. The BAD outcomes will drown out the good outcomes and we'll just have this bad feeling.
What if the worst thing comes to pass from this step I take?
So for you it might largely come down to risk.
We want to find the right balance of upside and downside potential in the moves we're making. If we can mitigate, or even completely remove, the downside (or the perceived downside anyway), then that might remove any sort of fear barrier in "the uncertain."
We can't eliminate all possible negative outcomes - that's just the nature of the uncertain path. We can't know what's going to happen until we do it, we can only imagine, and then hopefully overcome our resistance in order to discover reality.
Limiting the worst case scenario, or even better, accepting the worst case scenario as an ok outcome can give you a veil of certainty as you move forward.
Curiosity
Which actually brings us to the power of curiosity. Consider the above scenario where you're trying to mitigate the negative risk of what you're about to do.
One way to do this is instead of trying to balance unpredictable outcomes, you shift your perspective to allow one certain outcome to be the thing you're seeking ...
That in many ways can completely eliminate uncertainty in any step you're taking.
What's a certain outcome from action?
DATA.
So instead of worrying about what might happen, if you approach your project/choice with a "I'm gonna just find out what happens, collect the data, and then move forward," that curiosity will override any fear you might have associated with uncertainty.
One way to make this work really well is ...
Trust yourself
This is ... probably the hardest thing to do of all the above.
But if you can learn how to trust yourself to figure things out, then you can start swimming in the sea of uncertainty with much greater ease.
I'd argue that this is the best way to deal with uncertainty at every level. IF you can know that no matter what happens, you'll figure things out, then who cares about what's certain?
It's always just you, here, and now.
It's always the data you have in front of you, and the choices you have moving forward. And you can know that in the future that will also be the case.
The best way to deal with uncertainty is to trust that no matter what happens you'll be able to figure it out. This allows you to capture the upside of uncertainty (change, movement), while protecting against the downside (potential loss).
So,
How do you figure THAT out?
I suspect I could write an entire thing on trusting yourself ...
But let's start with something that's already available:
Use the Science of Hindsight
You are here now.
Which means you've figured out how to get where you are now.
You have evidence right in front of you that you are capable of figuring things out. You might not believe it. You might not trust it ...
But if you take a clear look at the path you've walked and the actions you've taken, I suspect you'll find the evidence that you DO have the ability to figure things out no matter what happens.7
You are human after all.
And we have that ability in us to chose the actions we take. To make decisions better instead of making better decisions. To embrace The Champions Mind over The Human Mindset8 …
To embrace Uncertainty and welcome it as a powerful miasma from within which we can discover all that most matters, is useful, and powerful to us each uniquely.
Be Useful. Be Present. Love the Journey.
Joseph Robertson, CMO The Guardian Academy
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Ready to apply your ideas to reality? You may find our Engage the Field Handbook a useful and effective resource.
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I effing LOVE this insight!
“Uncertainty is where the good stuff can emerge, while certainty has no emergence.”
Also the call to action trust yourself.
“As soon as you trust yourself, you will know how to live.”—Goethe